Lots of factors go into a number like that, including the governor's advertising blitz and the relative weakness of his opponents. But it still may be instructive to compare that number to more recent poll results.
A new survey done for the political science
department at Illinois Wesleyan University shows that Blagojevich's
statewide job approval rating is 23 percent, to 60 percent who don't
approve and 18 percent who gave other responses.
Web Link: Survey
But the recent poll found that even in Cook County, the heart of Blagojevich's support in 2006, only 29 percent of respondents now approve of the job the governor is doing, with 53 percent disapproving.
Statewide, 395 people were questioned for the poll, which was done Oct. 15-18. Outside Cook County, the governor's ratings were 18 percent approval and 64 percent disapproval.
The whole poll has a 5 percentage point margin of error, which would be higher for each subsample.
The results are clearly a sign of trouble for a public official who has benefited from positive numbers in the area closest to his home city of Chicago.
I've often said that those who watch state government the closest - meaning people in Springfield - were early and strong critics of the governor. He has exhibited inattention to the day-to-day workings of government, has dismissed concerns of front-line state workers, put political people in important jobs, exhibited a grandstanding style with little follow through, and has a penchant to attack anyone he sees as standing in his way and a lack of credibility because of a string of broken commitments.
Sangamon County, which has a healthy minority of Democrats, gave Blagojevich less than 21 percent of the vote a year ago.
But I've also said that in northeast Illinois, particularly Chicago, state government is not a big story. It runs behind what Mayor RICHARD DALEY does, and lately, in the midst of a Cook County budget crisis, what County Board Chairman TODD STROGER does.
Blagojevich's style of news conferences and ribbon-cuttings, or one-issue appearances without too much back-and-forth with reporters, has worked pretty well for years. Voters busy with their everyday lives see a glimpse of the governor on the news, saying he wants roads fixed or health care for all, and they might equate that with doing a good job.
But lately, state government has been a bigger issue in Chicago. The public transit systems are threatening to make severe cuts because of lack of help from Springfield. Blagojevich has threatened to veto what many see as a viable fix for mass transit - a combination of reforms plus a relatively small sales tax increases in Cook County and the adjacent collar counties.
The governor avoided service cutbacks recently by allowing Chicago area transit agencies to use some of next year's funding now. That move showed that he knows that, if real-life services like commuter trains and buses are affected, people just might hold him responsible, no matter how much he tries to blame all ills on his rival, House Speaker MICHAEL MADIGAN, D-Chicago.
But the threat of cutbacks, along with lots of other things, finally seem to have taken a toll on the governor's popularity.
Those other things include his proposal this spring of the largest tax increase in state history.
And then there are the drip-drip of stories about near-shutdowns of state government because the governor and legislative leaders can't agree on a budget; the phony talk about campaign finance reform from the governor and Senate President EMIL JONES JR., both of whom have either done nothing or blocked a strong reform bill waiting for action in the upper chamber; and the inability of the governor so far to get a capital plan passed.
"The co-called mess in Springfield has obviously resonated with voters," said IWU professor TARI RENNER. And compared with the election a year ago, he added, "you can certainly say that he's eroded dramatically in Cook County."
The IWU poll puts U.S. Sen. DICK DURBIN, D-Ill., who is up for re-election in 2008, at 54 percent approval, 22 percent disapproval and 24 percent undecided or other.
But even worse than Blagojevich's numbers are those for GOP President GEORGE W. BUSH. Asked the job-approval question, 21 percent approved, 69 percent disapproved and 10 percent were undecided or other.
Renner says the president's numbers may hurt Republicans most in 2008 because it's a presidential election year, but in 2010, when the focus will be on the governor's race, Democrats could be hurt by association with Blagojevich.
The IWU numbers are reinforced by a poll of 500 likely Illinois voters done Oct. 16 by Rasmussen Reports in partnership with FOX television stations. In that poll, with a 4.5 percentage point margin of error, only 24 percent said Blagojevich is doing a good or an excellent job, while 46 percent said he is doing a poor job and 37 percent rated his performance as "fair."
The days when Blagojevich could get by in Chicago on style alone seem to have passed.